Numerical Simulation and Prediction of Groundwater in Bac Ninh urban area, Red River Delta: Balancing Urban Expansion with Sustainable Resource Management

Abstract

This study utilizes the FEFLOW model to simulate groundwater dynamics in the Bac Ninh urban area, located in the Red River Delta, to assess the impact of increased water extraction due to urbanization and industrialization. Two scenarios were analyzed: Scenario 1, which maintains current extraction rates, and Scenario 2, which includes four new groundwater supply stations. The results of Scenario 1 show a gradual decline in groundwater levels, particularly in areas distant from rivers, but levels remain within allowable limits. Wells near rivers exhibit more stable groundwater levels due to natural recharge. Scenario 2 results in a larger decline, especially in distant areas, but the strategic placement of new wells near rivers helps mitigate the impact by enhancing natural recharge. The study concludes that future water demands, projected to increase by 12,500 m³/day by 2025 and 23,000 m³/day by 2030, can be met without exceeding the allowable depletion levels, provided that groundwater resources are managed effectively. The use of the FEFLOW model highlights the importance of optimizing well placement and extraction rates to ensure groundwater sustainability in Bac Ninh.