Evaluation of Economic Damages on Rice Production under Extreme Climate and Agricultural Insurance for Adaptation Measures in Northeast Thailand

Abstract

In northeast Thailand, the irrigated agricultural land was only 7.6% (in 2012) of total and others were classified as rain-fed so that climate change makes agricultural production unstable and also makes negative impact to the societies and economics in rural area. To mitigate these issues, it is desirable to develop enhanced adaptation measures. In this study, we focused on weather induced economic damages and effectiveness of index-based insurance system in Northeast Thailand. Firstly, we evaluated how affect the seasonal rainfall amount and patterns on rice yield and production through regression analysis by using the meteorological and agricultural statistic data. 8 province had positive correlation R>0.3 with Jul-Sep accumulated rainfall. And then, probability analysis was applied to monthly rainfall which was employed for insurance index value. As a result, setting amount and periods of insurance index was suitable. Secondly, household survey was conducted to investigate farmer’s conditions of water use, cultivation, income balance. In recent year, agricultural damage on farmer’s income was not so large (less than 3%), because 65% of farmers income relied on non-agricultural sector. That might be the one reason of constraints of insurance sales.