Climate Change and Landslide Risk Assessment in Uttaradit Province, Thailand

Abstract

The incidents of sudden landslides in Thailand during the past decade have occurred frequently and more severely. The rain-triggered landslide hazard analysis is the focus of this research. The combination of geotechnical and hydrological data is used to determine permeability, conductivity, bedding orientation, overburden and presence of loose blocks. The regional landslide hazard mapping is developed using the Slope Stability Index SINMAP model supported on Arc GIS software version 10.1. The geological data can indicate the shear strength and the angle of friction values for soils above given rock types, which leads to the general applicability of the approach for landslide hazard analysis. In terms of hydrological data, the millimetres/twenty-four hours of average rainfall data are used to assess the rain triggered landslide hazard analysis in slope stability mapping. The Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) version 4.2, is used to assess the simulation scenario of future change; the study area is Uttaradit province, northern Thailand. The landslide hazard mapping will be compared and shown by areas (km²) for both present and future conditions under climate simulation scenarios A2 and B2 in Uttaradit province. The identified risk areas largely lie in hilly and mountainous terrain; which areas can be given additional protection during land use planning in order to reduce the risk of slope failure and the associated impacts on human activities.